Chen, Yu-chin (contributor); Rogoff, Kenneth S. (contributor) - 2008
CAN EXCHANGE RATES FORECAST COMMODITY PRICES?
Yu-chin Chen Kenneth Rogoff Barbara Rossi
(University of Washington …, let alone actually forecast them, at least at horizons of one year
or less. Meese and Rogoff’s (1983a,b, 1988) finding that … surprising that a random walk forecast
outperforms fundamental-based models, as in a rational expectation present-value model, if …