Kollmann, Robert; Zeugner, Stefan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
-financial businesses, and real activity. We document that leverage is negatively correlated with the future growth of real activity, and … positively linked to the conditional volatility of future real activity and of equity returns. The joint information in sectoral … leverage series is more relevant for predicting future real activity than the information contained in any individual leverage …