McDermott, C. John; Cashin, Paul Anthony; Scott, Alasdair M. - 2005
This paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in commodity prices. We find that for the majority of … they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom. We also find little evidence of a consistent 'shape' to cycles in commodity … prices. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the …