Moreno Badía, Marialuz; Medas, Paulo; Gupta, Pranav; … - 2020
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal …-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for … complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises …