Woerle, Sebastian Matthias - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 7 (2013) 3, pp. 1-28
This paper tests the explanatory power of an online Prediction market on the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi as Libya’s leader during the uprising in 2011. Based on the theory of efficient markets and collective intelligence, it employs a GARCH time-series analysis and an event study of Intrade...