Foster, Dean P.; Hart, Sergiu - In: Theoretical Economics 18 (2023) 4, pp. 1441-1474
In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made … arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score. The Brier score is the sum of the calibration score and the refinement score … the question of whether one can gain calibration without losing expertise, which we refer to as “calibeating.” We provide …