Lehner, Paul; Michelson, Avra; Adelman, Leonard; … - In: Judgment and Decision Making 7 (2012) 6, pp. 728-740
Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative...