Dreher, Axel; Marchesi, Silvia; Vreeland, James Raymond - 2021
Using panel data for 157 countries over the period 1999-2005 we empirically investigate the politics involved in IMF … economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in … find inflation forecasts are systematically biased downwards for countries with greater IMF loans outstanding relative to …