Clinton, Kevin; Johnson, Marianne; Chen, Huigang; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and … affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin … hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an …