Favero, Carlo A.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
In this paper we assess the possibility of producing unbiased forecasts for fiscal variables in the euro area by … ARMA models, VARs, small scale semi-structural models at the national and euro area level, institutional forecasts (OECD …), and pooling. Our small scale models are characterized by the joint modelling of fiscal and monetary policy using simple …