Lang, Jan Hannes; Rusnák, Marek; Greiwe, Moritz - 2023
euro area countries, we show that both types of indicators contain information about downside risks to real GDP growth … (growth-at-risk) in the short-term (1-year ahead). However, only vulnerability indicators contain information about growth …-of-sample predictive ability for medium-term growth-at-risk in euro area countries. Shocks to the SRI induce a rich ”term structure” for …