Guérin, Pierre; Maurin, Laurent; Mohr, Matthias - European Central Bank - 2011
The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap … models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of trend-cycle decomposition of euro area GDP, both univariate and multivariate … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the …