Carstensen, Kai; Elstner, Steffen; Paula, Georg - CESifo - 2011
the underlying shock. On the one hand, an oil supply disruption clearly provokes a recession. On the other hand, positive … demand shocks prompt a temporary increase in exports and investment that initially outweigh the cutback on consumption … of German GDP in 2009 and, therefore, notably contributed to the recession of that year. …