We study the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on long-term economic growth and its drivers as well as on inflation, in a sample of 118 countries over 1970-2019, including 69 commodity exporters. Our econometric approaches account for bi-directional feedback effects,...

This paper analyses the evolution of innovation in the mining sector and how this innovation responds to the economic environment, in particular to changes in commodity prices. For this purpose, we combine commodity price data with innovation data as proxied by patent filings extracted from a...

COVID-19 has thrown a stark, harsh light on the world’s economy and has had a significant impact on monetary policies worldwide. In China, the economy is entering a new normal, and the effect of monetary policy on agricultural commodity prices has induced noticeable structural changes. The...

Consumer prices have increased in Japan since the pandemic began, when commodity prices increased worldwide. This study investigates commodity price pass-through into inflation in the low and high inflation regimes in Japan. By estimating the threshold autoregressive model that considers past...

This paper investigates whether the commodities market in India follows the random walk process and whether they deviate from the random walk theory (mean reversion). Daily log returns of the commodity future index (MCXCOMDEX) and three sectoral indices are examined using the Augmented...

On the 30th anniversary of the seminal article by Pindyck (1993), we re-evaluate the evidence for the classical rational model of commodity prices, extending it to admit time- varying discount rates, investors’ heterogeneity or both. Discount factors specifications are flexible enough to allow...

This paper analyzes the impact of commodity price shocks and global supply chain disruptions on U.S. inflation. Since the inflationary effect of particular commodities is time-varying, our main contribution is to construct a Cost-Push Commodity factor through a genetic algorithm which...

This paper determines the threshold at which commodity price volatility generates an adverse effect on the stability of the financial sector in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study is conducted on 24 countries over the period 2002–2021, using a dynamic panel model with threshold effects and the...

We compare and contrast extensions of the classical rational model of commodity pricing due to Pindyck (1993), on the occasion of the 30-year anniversary of this seminal article. The extensions we consider admit time-varying discount rates, investors' heterogeneity or both. Heterogeneous...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 dramatically disrupted the global supply of crude oil and agricultural commodities. As a consequence, the prices of oil and agricultural commodities increase substantially and many countries face the problem of high food inflation. Against...