Castelnuovo, Efrem; Tuzcuoglu, Kerem; Uzeda, Luis - 2022
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded … its pre-pandemic peak during the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Vector autoregression exercises identify unexpected …