Herrera, Helios; Ordoñez, Guillermo; Trebesch, Christoph - 2014
We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments’ popularity, predict financial crises above and … beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in … the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies …