Lutz, W.; Saariluoma, P.; Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S. - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) - 2000
All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their field of expertise, when it comes to forecasting they may make serious errors and can be as...