Within an internal model the Economic Scenario Generator (ESG) is an important component. In orderto get a regulatory approval of an internal model it is required that the implemented models (must be) passeda rigorous validation process, see Ceiops [2009].In this paper we focus on the particular...

Determining good parameter estimates in ESTAR models is known to be difficult. We showthat the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is a consequence of the so-calledidentication problem, the problem of properly distinguishing the transition function in relationto extreme parameter...

Iannaccone’s (1991) seminal paper assigns basic market principles to the market for religion. Ina competitive market with high religious diversity the level of overall religiosity should increase. TheSecularization Hypothesis suggests that the establishment of new churches casts doubt on the...

This article investigates economic performance when enforceable propertyrights are missing and basic needs matter for consumption. It suggests anew view of the so-called voracity eect according to which windfall gains inproductivity induce behavior that leads to lower economic growth. Takinginto...

In an inuential article Tornell and Lane (1999) considered an economy populatedby multiple powerful groups in which property rights in the formal sectorof production are not protected. They obtained conditions under which thegroups appropriate output from the formal sector in order to invest it...

We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternativesof the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed...

This paper analyses the effects of discretionary fiscal policy by presenting new empiricalevidence for Germany within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. FollowingBlanchard and Perotti (2002), the SVAR model is identified by applying institutionalinformation. We find no...

This paper analyzes and quantifies the idea of model risk in the environment of internal modelbuilding. We define various types of model risk including estimation risk, model risk in distributionand model risk in functional form. By the quantification of these concepts we analyzethe impact of...

We find a U-shaped relation between happiness and religiosity in cross-country panel dataafter controlling for income levels. At a given level of income, the same level of happinesscan be reached with high and low levels of religiosity, but not with intermediate levels. A risein income causes an...

The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires.We show the generality of this unpleasant finding for the standard real business cyclemodel. We then calibrate an extended model for the US and demonstrate how fiscalstimulus slows down economic recovery from...