We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant...

Changes in population age structure matter for public finances because the beneficiaries of public programs are primarily children and the elderly. This paper projects government spending on education, health care, and social protection in developing Asia up to 2050 using the National Transfer...

During the last few years, the newly coined term middle-income trap has been widely used by policymakers to refer to the middle-income economies that seem to be stuck in the middle-income range. However, there is no accepted definition of the term in the literature. In this paper, we study...

This paper asks, first, whether today’s developing economies can achieve high-income status without first building large manufacturing sectors. We find that practically every economy that enjoys a high income today experienced a manufacturing employment share in excess of 18%–20% sometime...

From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s)agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We...

Investments in agricultural research and extension have consistently demonstrated high rates of return in Asia and the Pacific. However, the recent global food crisis exposed the vulnerability of food supply systems and reversed many past achievements in the fight against hunger and...

In recent years, inequality has risen in the region alongside rapid economic growth. The widening income gap strengthens the case for a government response, and fiscal policy is one of the most suitable policy instruments to promote a more equitable society that provides opportunities for all....

The focus of this paper is on improving governance through the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in the delivery of services to the poor, i.e., improving efficiency, accountability, and transparency, and reducing bribery. A number of papers recognize the potential benefits...

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International...

The core idea behind the paper is that trade policy matters for the organization of global value chains, a notion largely neglected by economists but which has important implications for our understanding of trade and the international transmission of trade policy shocks. We develop a...