This note takes a closer look at some factors that influence demand and supply in residential property markets, and goes on to consider how such factors might be relevant in interpreting current New Zealand developments.

In early 2013 New Zealand suffered its worst drought in decades. Using several new aggregate climate indicators and a newly-developed model, we estimate the economic impact of the drought. Annual real GDP in 2013 could be around 0.6 per cent lower than it would otherwise have been.

We use statistical techniques to identify the co-movement among the bond yields of 12 advanced countries, and thus estimate two-year and 10-year World Interest Rates. Daily and monthly changes in the estimated World Interest Rates explain a lot of the variation in New Zealand bond yields.

The sectoral core factor model of inflation is one of many series that the Reserve Bank uses to help interpret inflation developments. This Analytical Note explains the model and outlines some modifications that have led to revisions to the published historical series.

Fluctuations in migration are a significant feature of New Zealand's economy. This note reports results of statistical modelling that analyses the relationship between permanent and long-term migration (and its components) and developments in the housing market.

Estimates of neutral interest rates play a useful role in thinking about monetary policy. This note explores the concept of a neutral interest rate and provides some simple empirical illustrations of the trend decline in neutral rates, here and abroad, over the last couple of decades.

In recent years there have been high profile currency interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In this note, we review these interventions, with a focus on the profitability of currency intervention, along with the relationship between profitability and the...

Determinants of New Zealand mortgage interest rates are examined, including how changes in the OCR are transmitted through the wholesale cost of funds to mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are modelled as a mark-up over banks' marginal funding cost. The results suggest that banks frequently diverge...

On 1 August 2011 the Reserve Bank s trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) rose to 75. The only previous time that this level was reached since the exchange rate was floated in 1985 was in July 2007. On both of these occasions, the high level of the TWI was matched by the ANZ commodity price...

This note presents the data and technical detail underlying a new set of estimates of gross asset returns since 1989 for a wide range of assets relevant to New Zealanders. The estimates have an economy-wide lens. An individual investor is likely to be interested in the realised risk and return...