A model is developed that attempts to explain the historical size of the U.S. equity premium by distinguishing between gross and net returns accruing to agents. The model derived by Mehra and Prescott (1985) is augmented with a bid-ask spread, calibrated and simulated. Equity premia in the order...

This paper tests the well-known real business cycle model of Kydland and Prescott (1988), using spectral methods for linear filters. Model spectra, coherencies, phase shifts, and correlations are tested against U.S. post-war data using both asymptotic and small-sample distributions. Compared...

This paper compares sample fluctuations of the US business cycle with those predicted by a class of equilibrium monetary business cycle models. The predictions of the models are generated using the long-run neutrality restrictions implicit in the models. By imposing these restrictions on sample...

A simulation-based non-linear filter is developed for prediction and smoothing in non-linear and/or non-normal structural time-series models. Recursive algorithms of weighting functions are derived by applying Monte Carlo integration. Through Monte Carlo experiments, it is shown that (1) for a...

This paper investigates the determinants of trade union membership in Australia using the Engle and Granger (1987) theory of co-integrated economic variables. Applying the theory of co-integration yields a model of union membership which can be interpreted as distinguishing between long-run and...

This paper develops a discrete-time hazard model which accounts for unmeasured heterogeneity while allowing the coefficients of the regressors to vary over time. Sufficient conditions for nonparametric identifiability of the unmeasured heterogeneity distribution are derived. Testing for...

A production model is formulated for the Finnish metal product and machinery industry for studying energy crises-related structural changes. Two models are estimated: a partial static equilibrium model, where capital is treated as a fixed input in the short run, and a dynamic model, where...

The models in the literature on exchange-rate target zones imply a non-linear time series model for the exchange rate. We show how the parameters of such models can be estimated and develop Maximum Likelihood and Method of Simulated Moments estimators for the target zone model of Krugman (1991)....