This paper assesses the empirical relevance of financial frictions in the Euro Area (EA) and the United States (US). It provides a comprehensive set of comparisons between two models: (i) a Smets and Wouters (2007) (SW) model with financial frictions originating in non-financial firms à la...

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that, during the Great Moderation, monetary policy leaned against the wind blowing from the loan market in the US. It then shows that the extent to which this occurred delivers a small welfare...

Observed Engel curves are non-monotonic, hence consumption goods may be regarded as luxuries only for ranges of consumer income. This paper rationalises this evidence by postulating that quality of consumption governs the distribution of spending across goods. We argue that quality upgrading as...

We estimate versions of the Nelson-Siegel model of the yield curve of U.S. government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the stochastic process followed by the interest rates. Our modelling approach is motivated by evidence suggesting the...

Financial markets are central to the transmission of uncertainty shocks. This paper documents a new aspect of the interaction between the two by showing that uncertainty shocks have radically different macroeconomic implications depending on the state financial markets are in when they occur....

We examine the relationship between the case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches using the costs of conflict as an example. In particular, we show that effects estimated from panel data models and effects estimated by the comparison of a treated case with a synthetic...

I derive the first four moments of the Markov-switching VAR and use the results to reconsider the conflict between the Great Moderation and Financial Crisis literatures. In contrast to the linear model, a three-regime Markov-switching model captures the skewness and kurtosis of US GDP growth...