We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province. There is considerable tactical redistribution: state-owned banks increase...

We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of long-term rates in the United...

This paper investigates how past experience with banking crises influences an individual's trust in banks. We combine data on banking crises for the period 1970–2014 with individual data on trust in banks for 52 countries. We find that experiencing a banking crisis diminishes a person's trust...

We explore individual lender behaviour on Renrendai.com, a leading Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) crowdlending platform. Using a sample of roughly 5 million investor-loan-hour observations and applying a high-dimension fixed effect estimator, we establish evidence of herding behaviour: the investors...

This paper studies monetary policy transmission in China's peer-to-peer lending market. Using spectral measures of causality, we explore the impacts of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China's P2P market interest rates and lending amounts. The estimation results indicate significant spectral...

Taking the multilateral sanctions program launched against Russia in 2014 as a case study, this paper investigates the economic effects of sanctions and counter-sanctions on a target economy. A synthetic control method for comparative case studies is employed to construct counterfactuals. The...

Benford's law states that the leading significant digits in real-world data sets, provided the data span several orders of magnitude, are not normally uniformly distributed. Deviations from this law may indicate human intervention, even fraud. The data on Chinese banks' non-performing loans has...