We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty, guided by a theoretical model of government policy choice. After deriving the model's predictions for option prices, we test those predictions in an international sample of national elections and global summits. We find that political...

For an arbitrary finite or infinite dataset D of prices and corresponding chosen bundles, it is shown that the following three conditions are equivalent. (i) D satisfies GARP; (ii) D can be rationalized by a utility function; (iii) D can be rationalized by a strictly increasing, quasiconcave...

The financial crisis highlighted the importance of systemic risks and of policies that can be employed to prevent and mitigate them. Several recent initiatives aim at establishing institutional frameworks for macro-prudential policy. As this process advances further, substantial uncertainties...

This paper seeks to understand the interplay between banks, bank regulation, sovereign default risk and central bank guarantees in a monetary union. I assume that banks can use sovereign bonds for repurchase agreements with a common central bank, and that their sovereign partially backs up any...

We study a new data set of dividend derivatives with maturities up to 10 years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose the equity yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend...

The Patient Protection and Aff ordable Care Act of 2010 marked a substantial shift in U.S. health care policy. This paper creates an event study that measures the impact of the law by observing health care fi rm stocks in the S&P 500 when on June 28, 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court very...

We argue that a social norm and the coordination of behavior within social groups can be expressed by a correlated equilibrium. Given a social group structure (a partition of individuals into social groups), we propose four conditions that one may expect of a correlated equilibrium consistent...

We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters (2007) New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital and distortionary taxation. The...

Monetary policy and the welfare cost of inflation cannot be studied without some specification of allowable fiscal instruments. Here, feasible policies are implied by the frictions imposed to get roles for money and credit. The model has extreme versions of an above-ground economy - people who...

We develop a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles in the context of a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. The interaction between a production sector, a financial intermediation sector, and a household sector gives rise to amplification of fundamental shocks that affect real economic...