There are different approaches for the detection of market phase changes in stock markets. Most of them utilize various assumptions and constraints which makes these methods somewhat arbitrary. This paper develops an algorithm which identifies bull and bear markets retrospectively in a very...

The paper estimates the effect of oil price fluctuations on GDP growth, using linear and nonlinear VAR models with data from 12 countries. It reports strong significance for the existence of non-linear moderator effects caused by a decline in the oil-to-energy share, which weakens the causal...

In this paper we analyze the dynamics of an R&D differential game allowing for technological spillovers and sigmoid learning functions of multiproduct oligopolies. We demonstrate how the presence of learning together with spillovers may generate a rich set of outcomes, varying from constant...

This paper extends Harsanyi's Impartial Observer Theorem by introducing Knightian Uncertainty in the form of individual belief systems. It features an axiomatic framework of societal decision-making in the presence of individual uncertainty. The model allows the analysis of scenarios where...

We employ a dynamic market model with endogenous creation of submarkets to study the optimal product innovation strategies of incumbent firms. Firms invest in production capacity and R&D knowledge stock, where the latter determines the hazard rate of innovation. We find that under Markov Perfect...

In this paper, we develop a political economy model to study the decision of representative democracies to join a preferential trading agreement (PTA), distinguishing between free trade areas (FTA) and customs unions (CU). Our theoretical analysis suggests that income inequality and bilateral...

In this paper, we study and compare the stability of trade policy arrangements in two different regulatory scenarios, one with and one without Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs), i.e. current vs. modified WTO rules. Unlike the existing literature, our paper considers an extensive choice set of...

In this paper we study the impact of environmental pollution in an endogenous growth model with endogenous structural change. The paper allows for both horizontal and vertical innovations where newer technologies are less polluting compared to older ones. The analysis shows that the presence of...