In addition to containing stable information to explain inflation, state-local expenditures have also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US inflation than the Federal funds rate. Non-defense federal expenditures are useful in predicting real output variations and, starting from the...

We use the new procedure developed by Easley et al. to estimate the Probability of Informed Trading (PIN), based on the volume imbalance: Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN). Unlike the previous method, this one does not require the use of numerical methods to estimate...

This paper studies how fiscal policy affects credit market conditions. First, it conducts a FAVAR analysis showing that the credit spread responds negatively to an expansionary government spending shock, while consumption, investment, and lending increase. Second, it illustrates that these...