The process by which most Central Banks target nominal interest rates and implement monetary policy has changed considerably in the last 20 years. Today, the use of interest payments on reserves and the decoupling of rate targets (e.g., the Fed Funds Rate) from reserve targets now play a crucial...

We study the identification of dynamic discrete choice models with hyperbolic discounting using a terminating action. We provide novel identification results for both sophisticated and naive agents’ discount factors and their utilities in a finite horizon framework under the assumption of a...

I evaluate whether incorporating sub-national trends improves macroeconomic fore-casting accuracy in a deep machine learning framework. Specifically, I adopt a computer vision setting by transforming U.S. economic data into a ‘video’ series of geographic ‘images’ and utilizing a...

Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and inter-actions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful measure of oil market risk (or oil price uncertainty) for policy makers and...

This paper provides the uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression when the true lag order of the model is unknown, possibly in nity. The theory allows for various persistence levels of the data, growing response horizons, and general conditionally heteroskedastic shocks....

Weaker retention of women in quantitatively oriented fields, particularly STEM2 is widely seen in US higher education. Focusing particularly on STEM, the literature documents the fact of less generous grading practices in these fields compared to most other disciplines, as well as the phenomenon...

Lobbying activities are important to the promotion of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). I quantify the influence of lobbying on ratification probability of FTA by constructing a novel dataset containing all lobbying activities about FTAs in the United States. I setup a contest model of lobbying...

We examine aggregation in the neoclassical growth model with aggregate shocks and uninsurable employment risk, as well as related environments. We introduce a Walrasian auctioneer whose job is to report to households all possible state-contingent future prices. Households take these as given...

This paper studies sovereign debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model incorporated with asymmetric information and long-term debt. Government is assumed to have access to both international bond financing and non-Paris club lending (a...

We consider inference for predictive regressions with multiple predictors. Extant tests for predictability may perform unsatisfactorily and tend to discover spurious predictability as the number of predictors increases. We propose a battery of new instrumental-variables based tests which involve...