This paper investigates the drivers of industry and aggregate fluctuations. We model the dynamics of a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors. This allows us to consider directly the linkages between sectors typical of any production system, in a framework where the sectors are...

The payment of bonuses can bring big benefits. But harm, too, can result. In the financial sector, this is especially true, above all when they are related to noisy indicators of performance over brief periods. This paper starts by exploring these ideas, then proceeds to examine credit rating...

We consider “robust stability” of a rational expectations equilibrium, which we define as stability under discounted (constant gain) least-squares learning, for a range of gain parameters. We find that for operational forms of policy rules, i.e. rules that do not depend on contemporaneous...

This paper analyses a model with downward rigidities in which firms cannot pay discriminate based on year of entry to a firm, and develops an equilibrium model of wages and unemployment. We solve for the dynamics of wages and unemployment under conditions of downward wage rigidity, where forward...

Recent attempts to incorporate optimal fiscal policy into New Keynesian models subject to nominal inertia, have tended to assume that policy makers are benevolent and have access to a commitment technology. A separate literature, on the New Political Economy, has focused on real economies where...

In this paper we simulate a central bank subject to the misperception that prices are indexed to past inflation in periods when firms are unable to re-optimise. It thinks, in other words, that inflation is intrinsically persistent. The central bank sets monetary policy optimally subject to this...

In this paper, we assess the ability of time-varying VAR models to correctly diagnose the source of ‘Great Moderations’ generated in simulations of a learning model. We find that, in general, they can. For example, in data sets with Great Moderations generated by good policy, the VAR...

This paper addresses a puzzle in the UK labour market. Why is not there enough investment in job training when there is a high skill premium? We model this as a coordination game between firms and workers. Using a social planning model as a baseline, the paper demonstrates that while it is...

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