The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast-based method of decomposing a variable such as output, into trend and cycle when the variable is integrated of order one (I (1)). This paper considers the multivariate generalization of the BN decomposition when the information set includes...

In terms of the ratio of its public debt and public deficit to GDP the United States lies in the middle of the pack of industrial countries. The period since 1980 is the only peacetime period outside the Great Depression to see a sustained increase in the debt-GDP ratio. The budgetary...

If efficient economic activity requires appropriate public goods, then changes in the volume and flow of trade will induce changes in the demand for these public goods. In general, if people disagree over their preferred levels of public goods, the expansion of trade may affect the structure of...

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analysed for European exchange rates using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables,...

In this paper we develop techniques for measuring the trade policy equivalent of domestic distortions, using a distance function approach. Our measure, the Trade Restrictiveness Index, is shown to equal the uniform tariff which is welfare-equivalent to a given pattern of domestic taxes and...

The transition in East Germany has been characterized by an extremely rapid privatization of state-owned enterprises and by an equally rapid process of deindustrialization. The great majority of East German SOEs have been privatized and are now genuine capitalist firms with an owner with the...

This paper develops a simple time-series model of emigration and applies it to data for emigration from the UK between 1870 and 1913. The model is derived from a microeconomic analysis of the migration decision and provides a specific functional form and dynamic structure. It encompasses many of...

Natives often fear that competition from foreigners in labour markets will cause wages to fall and unemployment to rise. These effects might actually be realized if natives and immigrants were substitutes. If they are complements, however, the result might be rather different. This paper...

We consider a Heckscher-Ohlin model in which goods and factors of production can be traded, but trade involves transactions costs. Goods trade alone will not equalize factor prices, so there is an incentive for trade in factors of production. Whether goods or factors are traded depends on...

This paper examines shares of fixed capital formation in GDP and rates of economic growth for more than 100 countries over successive five-year periods between 1965 and 1985 to determine the direction of causality between them. Simple regressions and multiple regressions including several...