This paper addresses the question of whether the European Monetary System can be copied outside Europe. Our answer is negative. The presence of the EC and the dependence of EC institutions on exchange rate stability lend credibility to EMS exchange rate targets in a way that would not be...

This paper analyses and compares the effects of common demand and supply shocks on the setting of optimal monetary policies under a clean float, a managed exchange rate system (such as the EMS) and a monetary union, when welfare depends on unemployment and the cost of living. The results suggest...

On the basis of quarterly data in 1977-87 and the use of the Engle-Granger method of co-integration, we find that real and financial factors, insolvency and illiquidity, are all important, separate influences on the defaults of French firms. We capture the effect of illiquidity by constructing...

We argue that the 1970s were characterized by attempts to maintain a cooperative, low unemployment equilibrium in the face of considerable union power, through use of incomes policies and neo-corporatist machinery. The 1980s saw a shift away from this, towards direct measures to limit union...

This paper discusses the EMS and proposals to move towards EMU in the context of recent theoretical and empirical work on international policy coordination. It treats two particular themes: asymmetry among EMS countries and its implications for policy coordination; and the coordination required...

It is widely thought that neither the foreign exchange markets nor equity markets are efficient, in the sense that tests of the unbiasedness hypothesis and of the present value relationship, respectively, typically lead to rejection. Interest has therefore turned to whether a risk premium...

We adopt a stochastic model of labor market turnover in order to analyze entries to and exits from paid employment by British lone mothers. We estimate the model using demographic and employment history data from the 1980 Women and Employment Survey. The theoretical model predicts that the exit...

The paper analyzes the evolution of coalitions over the early 1980's between business interests, government authorities in the larger industrialized countries and European institutions, notably the Commission, to promote policies aimed at securing a European comparative advantage in...

This paper provides a theoretical evaluation of two of the most influential recent proposals for international monetary reform, namely McKinnon's standard with fixed exchange rates and Williamson's target zones. The focus is on the implications of the proposals for short-run stabilization...

High-debt countries may face the risk of self-fulfilling debt crises. If the public expects that in the future the government will be unable to roll over the maturing debt, they may refuse to buy debt today and choose to hold foreign assets. This lack of confidence may then be self-fulfilling....