In this paper I explore whether knowledge of the time-series properties of premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange can be usefully exploited in forecasting future spot exchange rates. I use signal-extraction techniques, based on recursive application of the Kalman filter, to identify...

In this paper I examine optimal monetary policy and the informational implications of the Phillips curve in a stochastic model of a small open economy. It is assumed that the economy produces both traded and non-traded goods, that capital mobility is perfect and that the economy faces a variety...

Previous empirical studies have found the gains from international policy coordination to be small relative to the imprecision with which policy can be framed. This paper investigates whether there are larger gains to strategic behavior (interpreted as Nash noncooperative equilibria), as...

In this paper, we implement a methodology to identify and measure premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange. The methodology involves application of signal-extraction techniques from the engineering literature. Diagnostic tests indicate that these methods are quite successful in...

Although the standard neoclassical model of female labour supply behaviour usually allows for the impact of demographic changes on value of female time in the household, the complexities of the tax and benefit system, and the influence of saving and borrowing on current period decisions, it does...

This paper examines the economic rationale for concern about the falling rate of growth of Europe's population. It also assembles demographic and economic time-series data for the countries of Eastern and Western Europe during the postwar period. The consequences of demographic developments for...

This paper examines the appreciation of the dollar over the period 1980-85. The standard theories try to explain the increased demand for dollar assets by differential rates of return on bonds or by "safe-haven" arguments associated with the lower riskiness of United States assets. Neither of...

This paper examines three questions concerning the international coordination of macroeconomic policy. First it examines whether it is advantageous for governments to cooperate in the determination of monetary and fiscal policies. Second it asks whether it is helpful for governments to establish...

Several controversial recent studies seek to explain Britain's high interwar unemployment rate as a consequence of the generosity of her unemployment insurance system. All of these studies are based on macroeconomic time-series data. In contrast, this paper employs a microeconomic cross-section,...

As a companion to a previous paper, monetary and fiscal policy are analyzed in (a) a small open economy and (b) a two-country world, where in addition to a fixed wage causing unemployment, countries now produce specialized products whose prices are fixed, causing excess supply. There are two...