The MRC's survey of the 1946 birth cohort recorded hourly pay at ages 26 and 32. Among those men employed, pay varied not only by the sex of the recipient but also by the existence of family responsibilities. Among women, employed mothers received lower average pay than women without children....

We present a theory of involuntary unemployment which explains why the unemployed workers ("outsiders") are unable or unwilling to find jobs even though they are prepared to work for less than the prevailing wages of incumbent workers ("insiders"). The outsiders do not underbid the insiders...

Many of the recently developed alternative econometric approaches to the construction and estimation of life-cycle consistent models using individual data can be viewed as alternative choices for conditioning variables that summarise past decisions and future anticipations. By ingenious choice...

The paper investigates a model of "exchange rate protection" by two countries. Either or both countries may protect their tradable sectors by maintaining undervalued exchange rates. The mechanism of protection considered involves a country increasing its national saving rate and exporting...

The paper provides an account of the current global economic situation, outlook and policy options. Medium-term prospects are mediocre and fraught with considerable downside risk. Fiscal and monetary policy options for the main industrial countries to improve global economic performance are...

This paper explores the hypothesis that the non-German members of the European Monetary System (EMS) draw benefits from the system because of the monetary discipline that it imposes upon them. The hypothesis explains the dominant position of Germany in the EMS and is consistent with the evidence...

The paper uses a general equilibrium model of regional labor markets, in which national and local factors interact to determine local wages and unemployment; when mobility between regions is obstructed by rent subsidies and controls, unemployment and wage differentials arise. Because...

The harshest criticism of econometrically based policy evaluation is undoubtedly the sensitivity of its conclusions to assumptions concerning the information available to policy-makers or to misspecification of the econometric models used in the evaluation. Economists appear to have accepted...

This paper examines the effects of tax cuts in a multi-country world where both labour supply and capital formation are endogenous and taxes are distortionary. We highlight four channels through which tax cuts affect interest rates and the economy in general: (i) an increase in the supply of...

In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the...