This paper assesses the contribution of confidence - or sentiment - data in predicting Canadian economic slowdowns. A probit framework is specified and applied to an indicator on the status of the Canadian business cycle produced by the OECD. Explanatory variables include all available Canadian...

This study explores the ‘brain drain' explanation for the concentration of incomes in Canada during the past thirty years, namely, that high-skilled Canadians have made use of the high salaries on offer in the United States to extract higher salaries at home. If this is the case, then for a...

This paper assesses the impact that a widely-based Securities Transaction Tax (STT) could have on the likelihood of systemic financial crises. We apply the methodology developed by Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache (1998) [IMF Staff Papers 45 (1)] to a panel dataset of 34 OECD countries for the...

This paper proposes a new formulation of the Maximum Diversification indexation strategy based on Rao's Quadratic Entropy (RQE). It clarifies the investment problem underlying the Most Diversified Portfolio (MDP) formed with this strategy, identifies the source of the MDP's out-of-sample...

This paper discusses the choice of the number of participants for within-subjects (WS) designs and between-subjects (BS) designs based on simulations of statistical power allowing for different numbers of experimental periods. We illustrate the usefulness of the approach in the context of field...

Psychological games of guilt aversion assume that preferences depend on (beliefs about) beliefs and on the guilt sensitivity of the decision-maker. We present an experiment designed to measure guilt sensitivities at the individual level for various stake sizes. We use the data to estimate a...

This paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based inference methods. The approach exploits the moments of...

We present a flexible model of wage dynamics where information about job openings is transmitted through social networks. The model is based on Calvó-Armengol & Jackson (2004, 2007) and extends their results outside the stationary distribution, and under observed and unobserved heterogeneity....

This paper estimates the causal impact of party affiliation (Republican or Democrat) of U.S. governors on pollution. Using a regression discontinuity design, gubernatorial election data, and air quality data from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), we find that pollution is lower under...

We assess whether global social welfare has improved in the last decades despite (or because of) the substantial increase in global population. We use for this purpose a relatively unknown but simple and attractive social evaluation approach called critical-level generalized utilitarianism...