This paper introduces a general method to study stability (under learning) of equilibria resulting from agents with misspecified perceptions of the law of motion of the economy. This is done by transforming the actual and perceived laws of motion into the form of seemingly unrelated regressions...

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations...

We explore the relationship between low carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the UK Electricity System. We consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security - robustness against interruptions of any one source - and apply two...

A computational technique that transform integrals over RK, or some of its subsets, into the hypercube [0, 1]K can be exploited in order to solve integrals via Monte Carlo integration without the need to simulate from the original distribution; all that is needed is to simulate iid uniform [0,...

This paper considers forecasts of the distribution of data whose distribution function is possibly time varying. The forecast is achieved via time varying combinations of experts’ forecasts. We derive theoretical worse case bounds for general algorithms based on multiplicative updates of the...

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic risk and the nature of exposure or firm heterogeneity. We derive fat-tailed correlated loss distributions arising from Gaussian risk...

We study the strategic behavior of voters in a model of proportional representation, in which the policy space is multidimensional. Our main finding is that in large electorate, under some assumptions on voters'preferences, voters essentially vote, in any equilibrium, only for the extreme parties.

This paper provides a review of the literature on unit roots and cointegration in panels where the time dimension (T), and the cross section dimension (N) are relatively large. It distinguishes between the first generation tests developed on the assumption of the cross section independence, and...

Transparency and openness of the monetary policymaking process at the Bank of England has provided very detailed information on both the decisions of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee and the information on which they are based. We consider this decision making process in the...

Evidence from behavioural experiments suggests that intertemporal preferences reflect a hyperbolic discount function. This paper shows that in contrast to exponential discounting, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution for hyperbolic consumers depends on the persistence of the change in...