The paper presents various tests for assessing whether a time series is subject to drift. We first consider departures from the null hypothesis of no drift against the alternative of a deterministic and/or a non-stationary stochastic drift with initial value zero. We show that the standard...

Recent empirical research by Mark Taylor and coauthors has found evidence of hybrid dynamics for real exchange rates. While there is a random walk near equilibrium, for real exchange rates some distance from equilibrium there is mean-reversion which increases with the degree of misalignment. An...

The electricity supply industry is highly capital-intensive, whose success depends critically upon the management of its investment. In most developing countries investment is poorly managed, poorly maintained, and often inadequate. Inadequate regulation or political control lead to low prices...

We develop a simple model for studying the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on aggregate demand, at the business cycle frequencies. We focus on two questions principally. First, what are the key properties of the joint optimal simple rules governing the conduct of the systematic components...

This paper conducts a comparative technical efficiency analysis of electricity generators in 16 small island economies using panel data, and two methodologies: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). The results indicate neither apparent differences in the...

This paper presents a new approach to portfolio optimisation that we call generalised mean-variance (GMV) analysis. One important case of this approach is based on the stocks m-tile (or quantile): if m = n, where n is the number of stocks, m-tile membership becomes rank. Our analysis is the rank...

We ask what conditions transmission contracts increase or mitigate market power. We show that the allocation process of transmission rights is crucial. In an efficient arbitraged uniform price auction, generators will only obtain contracts that mitigate their market power. However, if generators...

The paper provides an account of the working of the Low Pay Commission that was established to advise on the introduction of a statutory National Minimum Wage for the United Kingdom. It discusses the way in which the Commission was constituted and the consultation procedures and research methods...

During the Summer of 2000, wholesale electricity prices in California were nearly 500% higher than they were during the same months in 1998 or 1999. This price explosion was unexpected and has called into question whether electricity restructuring will bring the benefits of competition promised...

This paper presents an analysis and defence of competition in retail electricity supply. It includes some account of its development in the UK over the last dozen years, to the point where all retail price controls have now been removed. The development of this competition illustrates a number...