This paper is concerned with tests in multivariate time series models made up of random walk (with drift) and stationary components. When the stationary component is white noise, a Lagrange multiplier test of the hypothesis that the covariance matrix of the disturbances driving the multivariate...

This paper investigates the presence of target-zone nonlinearities in the Pound Sterling/Deutsche Mark exchange rate for the period of the UK European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) membership, using data with frequency of every two days. Tests against general nonlinear specifications as well as...

A Citizen's Pension (CP) is a Citizen's Income for older people, payable on an individual basis to citizens, regardless of gender, current or past employment or marital status, living arrangements or income. A particular advantage of a CP at an adequate level is that it has the potential to lift...

This paper discusses the ?structural cointegrating VAR? approach to macroeconometric modelling and compares it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely, the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general...

A transformed likelihood approach is suggested to estimate fixed effects dynamic panel data models. Conditions on the data generating process of the exogenous variables are given to get around the issue of ?incidental parameters?. The maximum likelihood (MLE) and minimum distance estimator (MDE)...

Empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the predictability of inflation at long horizons varies considerably across countries. Both simple theory and empirical evidence suggest that the crucial factor is the extent to which systematic monetary policy succeeds in stabilising the...

In finance theory, the standard deviation of asset returns is almost universally recognised as a measure of risk. This universality continues to exist even in the presence of the known limitations of using the standard deviation and also alternative risk measures. One possible reason for this...

Conventional one-period utility functions in economics assume that initial wealth only enters preferences through the definition of final wealth. As a consequence, those utility functions most utilised (i.e. exponential and quadratic) have implausible risk characteristics. The authors...

If stock prices followed a random walk, uncertainty about future stock prices would be so great that the observed bias towards equities in long-term investment portfolios would be surprising. The good news is that if, as a growing body of research suggests, there is even a weak tendency for...

This paper examines the patterns of economic integration and endogenous growth in a two-country overlapping generations world in which the formation of human capital is driven by intergenerational paternalistic altruism. It explores the influence of cross-border external effects in human capital...