The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach has proven to be a very useful approach to analyze interactions in the global macroeconomy and other data networks where both the cross-section and the time dimensions are large. This paper surveys the latest developments in the GVAR modeling,...

We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves towards democracy in sub-Saharan Africa, and that these changes are often a result of concessions made as a result of the riots. This provides evidence that low-intensity conflict can have a substantial short-run impact...

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries...

This paper proposes a new framework to analyze and estimate structural fiscal balances. Stochastic trends are properly incorporated, and the numerical solution of the DSGE model serves as part of the Kalman smoother to extract structural fiscal balances. For the UK, a setting of an integrated...

The framework proposed by Ofgem, OFT and CMA invokes a well-functioning market, but the Competition Commission has not always used such a concept, and when it has done so it has been problematic. Here, the well-functioning market is Ofgem's vision of a successful market, not anchored in any...

Increasingly, local opposition to new electricity grid development projects cause lengthy delays and places financial and practical strain on the projects. The structure of the electricity industry is in transition due to the emergence of smaller but more numerous electricity generation...

The UK Government has developed a carefully designed Capacity Mechanism to ensure security of supply in the GB electricity system. This paper criticises the methods used to determine the amount of capacity to procure, and argues that the amount finally proposed is likely to be excessive,...

This paper models the US dollar as a global currency and focuses on the effects of US money supply shock upon China's economy. The special roles of US dollar as a global currency and the special institutional arrangements of China are investigated. Given a positive US money supply shock, both...

There is evidence that suggests that one of the channels through which the exchange rate could have an impact on growth is export product diversification. I distinguish between the variety and concentration dimensions of export diversification and review the theoretical and empirical literature...

In an article published in Development and Change in 2011, I suggested an alternative measure of inequality to the Gini - a "19th Century statistic" - which has subsequently become known as the ´Palma Ratio'. In this new article, I revisit the argument for such a measure. Using new data, I...