We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the buildup to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that (i) the escape from the...

We set up a two-region model to study the policy challenge of bringing the North's income up to the level of the South in the UK. The model focuses on labour costs as the driver of output gains through the international competitiveness channel. The empirical results show that the regional model...

This paper identifies a precautionary banking liquidity shock via a set of sign, zero and forecast variance restrictions imposed. The shock proxies the reluctance of the banking sector to "lend" to the real economy induced by an exogenous change in financial intermediaries' preference for "high"...

I model the use of research specialization in hiring as a signal of ability. I demonstrate that rewarding for specialization can make an average non-specializing candidate on average better than average specializing candidate, and vice versa. Specialization works as a good ability signal only...

This paper documents state dependence in labor market fluctuations. Using aThreshold Vector Autoregression model (TVAR), we establish that the unemployment rate, the job separation rate, and the job finding rate exhibit a larger response to productivity shocks during periods with low aggregate...

We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in FHFA house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We...

Firstly, we show that domestic prices of net importer countries incorporate a risk premium, driven by higher moments of future nominal exchange rate returns and secondly, using US dollar exchange rates against three currencies of major net exporting countries to the US such as Canada, Japan and...

This paper investigates whether housing collateral is important to the business cycle in China. We develop two models, one without housing collateral as benchmark and one variant allowing for it. Indirect Inference procedure tests these two models' compatibility with the data. We find that the...

We consider the notions of static and dynamic reasonableness of requests by an authority in a trust game experiment. The authority, modelled as the experimenter, systematically varies the experimental norm of what is expected from trustees to return to trustors, both in terms of the level of...

We provide a full characterisation of the set of trading equilibria (in which all goods are traded at a positive price) in a strategic market game (as introduced by Shapley and Shubik),for both the "buy and sell" and the "buy or sell" versions of this model under standard assumptions on the...