We use a macro-theory framework of analysis to assess Greek economic policy, with emphasis on the current period of the Greek debt crisis. We argue that this is mainly the result of misguided past internal policies deviating substantially from the policy lessons of modern macroeconomics. The...

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping's reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested...

We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) can explain UK inflation in the 1970s. We confront the identification problem involved by setting up the FTPL as a structural model for the episode and pitting it against an alternative Orthodox model; the models have a reduced...

Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are increasingly used to check a) the specification b) the forecasting capacity of these models. We carry out a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely-used DSGE model to investigate the power of...

This paper uses a sample of matched data of firms-banks in China over the period 1999-2012 to determine the drivers of firms switching behaviour from one bank relationship to another. The findings conform to the extant literature and therefore indicate that the switching behaviour of Chinese...

Using a sample of 151 banks over the period 2003 to 2010, this paper estimates a model that examines the effect of switching costs in the Chinese loan market on banking profitability. In keeping with the extant empirical literature it reports a positive relationship between bank profitability...

We investigate the relative roles of monetary policy and shocks in causing the Great Moderation, using indirect inference where a DSGE model is tested for its ability to mimic a VAR describing the data. A New Keynesian model with a Taylor Rule and one with the Optimal Timeless Rule are both...

We consider the well-analyzed abatement game (Barrett 1994) and prove that correlation among the players (nations) can strictly improve upon the Nash equilibrium payoffs. As these games are potential games, correlated equilibrium - CE - (Aumann 1974, 1987) cannot improve upon Nash; however we...

We construct investor sentiment of UK stock market using the procedure of principal component analysis. Using sentiment-augmented EGARCH component model, we analyse the impacts of sentiment on market excess return, the permanent component of market volatility and the transitory component of...

We construct a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model of the interaction between demography and the economy for six centuries of English history. At the core of the four overlapping generations, rational expectations model is household choice about target number and quality of children, as...