The R package Counterfactual implements the estimation and inference methods of Chernozhukov et al. (2013) for counterfactual analysis. The counterfactual distributions con- sidered are the result of changing either the marginal distribution of covariates related to the outcome variable of...

This paper introduces newinference methods for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for evaluating policy effects. Our inference methods work in conjunction with many modern and classical methods for estimating the counterfactual mean outcome in the absence of a policy intervention....

In this paper, we derive a rate of convergence of the Lasso estimator when the penalty parameter Lambda for the estimator is chosen using K-fold cross-validation; in particular, we show that in the model with Gaussian noise and under fairly general assumptions on the candidate set of values of...

The ill-posedness of the inverse problem of recovering a regression function in a nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) model leads to estimators that may suffer from poor statistical performance. In this paper, we explore the possibility of imposing shape restrictions to improve the...

Most modern supervised statistical/machine learning (ML) methods are explicitly designed to solve prediction problems very well. Achieving this goal does not imply that these methods automatically deliver good estimators of causal parameters. Examples of such parameters include individual...

This paper models the use of statistical hypothesis testing in regulatory approval. A privately informed agent proposes an innovation. Its approval is beneficial to the proponent, but potentially detrimental to the regulator. The proponent can conduct a costly clinical trial to persuade the...

In social and economic networks linked agents often share additional links in common. There are two competing explanations for this phenomenon. First, agents may have a structural taste for transitive links - the returns to linking may be higher if two agents share links in common. Second,...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

This paper introduces a bivariate version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. It allows for simultaneity in the econometric sense that the two realized outcomes depend structurally on each other. Another feature of the proposed model is that it will generate equal durations with...

We assigned two cohorts of kindergarten students, totaling more than 24,000 children, to teachers within schools with a rule that is as-good-as-random. We collected data on children at the beginning of the school year, and applied 12 tests of math, language and executive function (EF) at the end...