This paper aims to assess the role of tax-benefit policies in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the distribution of household disposable income in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Tax-benefit microsimulation and nowcasting techniques are used to adjust 2019 microdata to reflect the...

This paper focuses on the possibilities and functionalities offered by the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the UK – UKMOD to simulate and analyse the distributional impact of three examples of Basic Income schemes. We show how to build in functionalities to ensure fiscal neutrality and...

This paper evaluates the potential of a common unemployment insurance system for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU-UI) to improve income protection of atypical workers, namely those in part-time and temporary contracts. We use EUROMOD, the European tax-benefit microsimulation model, to...

This paper assesses the impact on household incomes of the COVID-19 pandemic and governments' policy responses in April 2020 in four large and severely hit European countries: Belgium, Italy, Spain and the UK. We provide comparative evidence on the level of relative and absolute welfare...

In this paper, we introduce UKMOD, a new tax-benefit model for England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the whole of the UK. The model originates and replaces as a stand-alone model the UK component of EUROMOD, the tax-benefit model for the European Union member states, which from 2021 is...

During 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc across the world, causing shockwaves that have impacted on many people's lives and financial security. In the absence of any known cures or preventative vaccines, governments quickly implemented policies to minimize its impact. In particular,...

This paper relies on a microsimulation framework to undertake an analysis of the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis over three waves. Given the lack of real-time survey data during the fast moving crisis, it applies a nowcasting methodology and real-time aggregate administrative...

We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under...

Using UKMOD, the UK tax-benefit microsimulation model, we analyse the impact on Londoners of the Covid-19 crisis, of the emergency policies put in place since March 2020 and of some counterfactual policy options, including the continuation of the £20 weekly uplift in Universal Credit and...

We analyse the UK policy response to Covid-19 and its impact on household incomes in the UK in April and May 2020, using microsimulation methods. We estimate that households will lose a substantial share of their net income (7% on average). As a proportion of income, the losses due to the crisis...