This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find that bubbles emerge in all these treatments,...

Moving between owner-occupied houses requires both buying and selling. During the Great Recession, the majority of movers sold their old houses before buying new ones, while in the preceding years the majority first bought new houses. In an equilibrium search model, by choosing the order of...

We propose a new methodology of assessing the effects of individual institution's risk on the others and on the system as a whole. We build upon the Conditional Value-at-Risk approach, however, we introduce the explicit Granger causal linkages and we account for possible nonlinearities in the...

Minority games are a stylized description of strategic situations with both coordination and competition. These games are widely studied using either simulations or laboratory experiments. Simulations can show the dynamics of aggregate behavior, but the results of such simulations depend on the...

We study the evolutionary success of a generalised trigger strategy within an asymmetric, n-player Prisoner's Dilemma environment, with application to the evolution of cooperation in international environmental negotiations. Our results suggest that there exist regions in the relevant parameter...

We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principles of reflexivity and stress the empirical relevance of non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria in positive feedback systems. We fit a behavioral asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations...

Economic consequences of critical transitions or regime shifts of ecological systems are a source of considerable concern. Though the underlying mechanisms are well-known, only since the advent of electronic computers the analysis of economic models exhibiting critical transitions can be...

In this paper we propose an extension of the nonparametric Granger causality test, originally introduced by Diks and Panchenko [2006. A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing. Journal of Economic Dynamics \& Control 30, 1647-1669]. We show that the...

We consider the market for a homogeneous good in which two firms simultaneously decide on both the price and the production level of the good. Firms have mean-variance preferences and they hold probabilistic conjectures about the actions of the other firm. We show that a pure-strategy...

In this paper, we introduce the partial symbolic transfer entropy (PSTE), an extension of the symbolic transfer entropy that accounts only for the direct causal effects among the components of a multivariate system. It is an information theoretic measure, and as such does not suffer from model...