This paper investigates the implications of the size of budget deficit in the open economy under perfect mobility of capital. For that purpose we construct a general equilibrium model with consumers maximizing the discounted utility of consumption, and firms maximizing profits. Government sets...

The economic activity indicators in Poland during the years 1995-2011 exhibit various cyclical patterns. Employing the Christiano – Fitzgerald band-pass filter and unobserved components model it is shown that the cyclical processes of Polish economic activity are driven by overlapping higher...

The paper discusses Bayesian productivity analysis of 27 EU Member States, USA, Japan and Switzerland. Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis and a twostage structural decomposition of output growth are used to trace sources of output growth. This allows us to separate the impacts of capital...

The problem of governments’ over-indebtedness is one of the most important challenges for today’s EMU governance. As numbers suggest, the problem of extensive deficits has appeared in the EMU long before the burst of the global financial crisis. We suspect that the membership in a currency...

In the paper, we document how conditional dependencies observed in the FOREX market change during a trading day. The analysis is performed for the pairs (GBP/EUR, USD/EUR) and (GBP/USD, EUR/USD) of exchange rates. We consider daily returns calculated using the exchange rates quoted at different...

If the most parsimonious behavioral model between an observed behavior, Y , and some factors, X, can be defined as f(Y|X1,X2), then fx1 will measure the impact in behavior of a change in factor X1. Additionally, if fx1x2 != 0, then the impact in behavior of a change in factor X1 is qualified, or...

The purpose of the article is to verify a hypothesis about the asymmetric pass-through of crude oil prices to the selling prices of refinery products (unleaded 95 petrol and diesel oil). The distribution chain is considered at three levels: the European wholesale market, the domestic wholesale...

Bartlett’s paradox has been taken to imply that using improper priors results in Bayes factors that are not well defined, preventing model comparison in this case. We use well understood principles underlying what is already common practice, to demonstrate that this implication is not true for...

The recent financial crisis has seen huge swings in corporate bond spreads. It is analyzed what quality VAR-based forecasts would have had prior and during the crisis period. Given that forecasts of the mean of interest rates or financial market prices are subject to large uncertainty...

We attempt to apply a New Keynesian open economy model to simulate the economic consequences of influenza epidemic in Poland and measure the output loss (indirect cost) related to this disease. We introduce a negative health shock on the supply side of the economy and demonstrate that such a...