We develop a fully Bayesian framework for analysis and comparison of two competing approaches to modelling daily prices on different markets. The first approach, prevailing in financial econometrics, amounts to assuming that logarithms of prices behave like a multivariate random walk; this...

In this study we evaluate the distortion of the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL) caused by rapid credit growth to show that the bias in this ratio (caused by the prolonged credit boom) may indeed be significant. Next, we discuss an adjustment to the NPL ratio based on a theoretical model of a...

This study examines whether the lowering interest-rate environment in CEE countries since the early 2000’s increased bank risk-taking behaviour. We employ 6,979 annual observations from the Bankscope database over the period 1997-2011 and find a positive relationship between bank risk-taking,...

In the article the author analyses the impact of the Financial Crisis, especially the Greek fiscal one, on the sCDS prices in Europe. The aim of the article is to assess the ability of the sCDS premia to price the risk of countries before and during the Greek crisis. The author analyses sCDS...

This paper models income distribution in four Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic) in 1990s and 2000s using parametric models of income distribution. In particular, we use the generalized beta distribution of the second kind...

This article aims at constructing a new method for testing the statistical significance of seasonal fluctuations for non-stationary processes. The constructed test is based on a method of subsampling and on the spectral theory of Almost Periodically Correlated (APC) time series. In the article...

Reliable data analysis is one of the hardest tasks in sciences and social sciences. Often misleading and sometimes puzzling results arise when the analysis is done without regard for the special features of the data. In this exposition, I will focus on designing new statistical tools to deal...

The paper refines Lenk’s concept of improving the performance of the computed harmonic mean estimator (HME) in three directions. First, the adjusted HME is derived from an exact analytical identity. Second, Lenk’s assumption concerning the appropriate subset A of the parameter space is...

This paper defines the concept of simple strategy and introduces three kinds of simple strategies: wealth-invariant, scale-invariant and "wealthier-accept more". For three commonly used utility function families: CARA, CRRA and DARA equivalent characterizations are obtained in terms of the...

In the paper we present robust estimation methods based on bounded innovation propagation filters and quantile regression, applied to measure Value at Risk. To illustrate advantage connected with the robust methods, we compare VaR forecasts of several group of instruments in the period of high...