We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that theyare anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range ofempirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely onsurvey data to...

We study the eect of the business cycle on optimal capital structure choice and thebenet to leverage. We propose a regime switching model with a state-dependentcash ow process to capture macroeconomic risk in a rm's cash ow. Our modelis parsimonious but still realistic and allows for a wide...

In this paper we develop the rst estimator of the covariance matrix that relies solely onforward-looking information. This estimator only uses price information from a cross-sectionof plain-vanilla options. In an out-of-sample study for US blue-chip stocks we show that aminimum-variance strategy...

Using detailed holdings of exchange-traded options, we examine how mutual funds use optionsand how options affect portfolio performance and risk. Options users underperform nonusers bytwo to three percent per year. The underperformance is especially pronounced for funds that areheavy users of...

This paper introduces two measures to investigate potential window-dressing behavior amongmutual fund managers. We show that unskilled managers that perform poorly are more likely towindow dress by strategically purchasing winner stocks and selling loser stocks near quarterends. Further, funds...

US equity mutual funds, on average, prefer realization of capital losses to capital gains. Nevertheless,a substantial fraction exhibits the disposition effect of realizing gains more readily than losses. Myanalysis suggests that learning effects have reduced the manifestation of the disposition...

The paper explores whether the co-movement of market returns and equity fundflows can be explained by a common response to macroeconomic news. I findthat variables that predict the real economy as well as the equity premium arerelated to mutual fund flows. Changes in dividend-price ratio explain...

This paper studies the flow-performance relationship of three di®erent investorgroups in mutual funds: Households, financial corporations, and insurance compa-nies and pension funds, establishing the following findings: Financial corporationshave a strong tendency to chase past performance and...

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue moreprofitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit fromthis contemporaneous link by differentiating between “able” and “lucky”analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records...

Using 13F position valuations, we show that hedge fund advisors intentionallymismark their stock positions. We document manipulation even after eliminatingissues inherent in the pricing of illiquid securities. The documented mismarking isrelated to hedge fund incentives. Mismarking is more...