The main ideas in this paper are: (a) that CGE models can be used in forecasting; and (b) that forecasts matter for policy analysis. We demonstrate these ideas by describing an application of MONASH, a dynamic CGE model of Australia, to the Australian motor vehicle industry over the period 1987...

The objective of this paper is to measure the scale efficiency of the New Zealand dairy industry and to examine the relationship between farm size and efficiency. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied to a sample of 264 dairy farms. The results suggest that 19 per cent of these farms are...

Plans for APEC trade liberalisation include the elimination of all tariffs between member states. In this paper we use two computable general equilibrium models to examine the effects of these plans, focussing on China. Our modelling shows that liberalisation increases China's capital stock and...

In static applied general equilibrium models, the exogenous/endogenous split between variables (or closure) is used to infer the time frame over which the effects of a shock are simulated. This paper introduces a long-run closure for the GTAP model (Hertel and Tsigas, 1997) and uses this closure...

The objective of this paper is to examine the short run and long run effects of the reduction of government expenditure on the Australian economy using an applied general equilibrium model, which incorporates economies of scale and imperfect competition. The paper describes a 23-sector...

The policy debate on global warming has raised the prospect of large taxes on Greenhouse pollutants leading to a very substantial rise in the price of energy. Models in which output is produced according to a technology in which capital (K), labour (L) and energy (E) are substitutable run into...

In this model firms seek to minimise their tax liabilities by purchasing rent-seeking services from a provider who also sells legitimate public services to the government. The provider enjoys economies of scope - its two outputs are produced jointly. Tax reform in this setting can increase both...

Dornbusch's 1976 overshooting exchange rate model (hereafter, DBM) has long been known to underpin several large macro models, including the Murphy Model (MM). But the dynamic adjustment paths of variables in MM differ markedly from those in DBM, even qualitatively. A leading case in point is...

In some developing economies the costs of meeting informal taxes (corruption of various sorts) have been put as high as 30 percent of the market value of output in some industries. Current political reform in Indonesia raises the prospect of a substantial fall in such costs. To assess the...

Australia has made outstanding contributions to the use of quantitative economic models in public policy discussions. That leading role is now threatened by the increasing use of econometric modellers in an advocacy, lawyer-like role, rather than as impartial sources of the best available...