We investigate the economic consequences of a twelve-month closure of U.S. borders in the form of cessation of trade, tourism and immigration flows. The federal government might contemplate such action in the face of an extreme terrorism or public health threat. Using a computable general...

We develop a framework for economy-wide modelling of value-added tax systems. Our framework models a number of complexities of VAT systems as they are implemented by tax agencies. In particular, we model multiple rates, multiple exemptions, multiple degrees of refundability across commodity...

Economic impact statements are part and parcel of project proponents seeking government assistance, infrastructure, or environmental clearance. Such impact assessments are increasingly being conducted with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Frequently, however, CGE modellers do not...

Using China's 2000 census data, this paper conducts population projection under different fertility scenarios to gauge the likely trends in China's future population change. The range of fertility assumptions captures the uncertainty of current fertility estimates as well as the likely trends...

We use a dynamic CGE model of China with a financial module and sectoral detail to examine the real and nominal impacts of a nominal exchange rate appreciation alone, fiscal policy alone and a combined fiscal and monetary package to redress China's external imbalance. The exchange rate policy...

In this study, we analysed the terms of trade effects of China's rapid growth on its neighbouring countries using a dynamic global CGE model, the MMC model. We first simulated a "real" or convergence scenario -showing how the economies of China and its neighbours might evolve based on historical...

Computable general equilibrium models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. The main objective is to provide realistic baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has...

The dramatic fertility decline since the beginning of 1970s has decelerated the growth of China's working age population. From 2015, this growth will turn sharply negative, resulting declining labour force in China. This has caused concerns about the sustainability of China's economic growth....

Large-scale multi-regional CGE models of Australia, such as MMRF and TERM, underlie most CoPS consulting work. The regional detail, modelled in bottom-up fashion, greatly interests policy makers and is often needed to answer questions like: how would less rainfall in southern Australia affect...

We use MVN - a dynamic CGE model of the Vietnamese economy - to investigate the Vietnamese economy's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences,...