In the 1980s and 1990s the issue of non-stationarity in economic time series has been in the context of unit roots vs. mean trends in AR(p) models. More recently this perspective has been extended to include structural breaks. In this paper we take a much broader perspective by viewing the...

Microsimulation models are apt to be the preferred instrument when applied, equality analyses of tax reforms in specific economies are undertaken. However, most of these models ignore general equilibrium effects, like changes in prices, and may therefore miss valuable information because of...

Pioneering work of modelling financial anxieties was given by Kimura et al (1999) as psychological change of people due to financial shocks. Since they regressed financial position (easy or tight) by nonstationary interest rate, their results exhibit high peaks not only in financial crisis...

Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics. Yet, empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with overshooting. This puzzling result has developed into a...

Recent empirical findings have emphasized post entry growth of survivors, as opposed to exit of inefficient and small firms, as the main source of growth over time in the average size of a cohort of entering firms. In this paper, as an explanation for the significant growth of survivors, we...

We use the Relevant Vector Machine, a technique of supervised learning introduced by Tipping (2001), to conduct a dynamic cointegration analysis on the time series of the price of gold and silver over the period 1971-2004. Unlike the results of traditional cointegration analysis, this study...

We analyze optimal monetary policy in a small open economy characterized by home bias in consumption. Peculiar to our framework is the application of a Ramsey-type analysis to a model of the recent open economy New Keynesian literature. We show that home bias in consumption is a sufficient...

In this paper we establish a link between the volatility of oil price shocks and a positive expected value of inflation in equilibrium (inflation premium). In doing so, we implement the perturbation method to solve up to second order a benchmark New Keynesian model with oil price shocks. In...

This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single...

Recently, perturbation has received attention as a numerical method for computing an approximate solution of a nonlinear dynamic stochastic model, which we call a nonlinear rational expectations (NLRE) model. To date perturbation methods have been described and applied as single-step...