An exchange rate model with heterogeneous expectations is developed in which agents are subject to mutual mimetic contagion in their portfolio decisions. Two alternative sources of heterogeneity are tested in order to explain the short-term dynamics of the euro/dollar since January 1999....

We investigate a statistical ensemble of daily returns of n equities traded in United States financial markets. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days 1 with the...

Nonlinear infinite horizon continuous time optimization problems are widely used in economics. However numerical solutions necessarily require reformulating the problem into a discrete finite approximation. The method proposed by Mercenier and Michel (1994) minimizes approximation error at...

Most intertemporal studies of risk are based on the constant relative risk aversion utility function. This has the property that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the coefficient of relative risk aversion are both consstant and inverses of each other. With the diversity of...

It is widely accepted that international trade is an important force transmitting business cycles from one country to another. Metaphors such as "when the U.S. sneezes, Europe catches a cold" are often invoked to illustrate the importance of these linkages. Recent empirical research has...

This paper extends the Auerbach-Kotlikoff life-cycle simulation model by incorporating demographic change, including lifespan extension, and multiple earnings groups within each cohort. The model is used to study the U.S. demographic transition. To ensure a realistic pattern of fertility by age,...

The notion of economic evolution can be seen as encompassing all the processes of change of the fundamental parameters of an economic system. So, any change in technology, preferences or institutions determines an evolutionary change for the economy. The formalization of those structural...

Many economic time series are charecterized by high persistence which typically requires nonstandard limit theory for inference. This paper proposes a new method for constructing confidence intervals for the impulse response functions of nearly nonstationary processes. The method is based on...

We investigate portfolio allocations and asset returns within a stochastic OLG economy with risky equity, generation-wide labor income shocks and portfolio nonnegativity constraints. Our model assumes a difference stationary endowment process, a young generation that faces labor income...

Papers on international business cycles have documented spurious welfare reversals: incomplete markets produce a higher level of welfare than the complete market. This paper first demonstrates how conventional linearization, as used in King, Plosser, and Rebelo (1988), can generate approximation...