This paper compares the goodness-of-fit and the stability of six methods used to extract risk-neutral probability density functions from currency option prices. We first compare five existing methods commonly employed to recover risk-neutral density functions from option prices. Specifically, we...

We analyze the microfoundations of the Phillips curve, a key relationship in general macroeconomics and models of monetary policy in particular. The form in current widespread use includes both forward looking expected inflation and lagged inflation. The presence of lagged inflation is necessary...

This paper is related to a large recent literature studying the Phillips curve in sticky-price equilibrium models. It differs in allowing for the degree of price stickiness to be determined endogenously. A closed-form solution for short-term inflation is derived from the dynamic stochastic...

This paper explores the role that recessions play in resource allocation. The conventional cleansing view, advanced by Schumpeter in 1934, argues that recessions promote more efficient resource allocation by driving out less productive units and freeing up resources for better uses. However,...

The goal of the paper is to analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between capital flows and their determinants. We develop a model of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI), and apply it to Turkey using an endogenous break analysis and...

This paper asks the question of whether the newly available TIPS yields data can help us achieve a better understanding of the real term structure and the inflation expectations. The yield differential between TIPS and comparable nominal coupon securities is not a direct measure of inflation...

Simple operations transform Hamilton's equations for particle motion in classical mechanics into energy units. Then one obtains a single equation in location, location-changes, momenta and momenta-changes with the interpretation: income from capital, in units of energy, balances with current...

This paper shows how a high level matrix programming language may be used to perform Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping, estimation by maximum likelihood and GMM, and kernel regression in parallel on symmetric multiprocessor computers or clusters of workstations. The implementation of...

This paper considers the evidence of “near-rationality†in household inflation expectations, as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000), hereafter ADP. According to ADP, the economic incentive to anticipate inflation varies from agent to agent, and as inflation falls, some...

The output gap plays a crucial role in thinking and actions of many central banks but real time measurements undergo substantial revisions as more data become available (Orphanides (2001), Orphanides and van Norden (forthcoming)). Some central banks augment, such as the Bank of Canada and the...